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UW Election Eye 2012

Campaign 2012 through eyes of UW faculty and students

Poll of Washington puts Santorum up by double digits, McKenna and Inslee tied for governor

A Public Policy Polling survey of Washington state Republicans over the weekend showed Rick Santorum with an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican nomination race, and Rob McKenna and Jay Inslee tied for the governor’s race.

At the presidential level, Santorum topped Romney, 38 to 27%. Ron Paul received 15% and Newt Gingrich 12%. Gingrich plans to be in Washington to campaign Thursday and Friday.

Santorum has a favorability-to-unfavorability rating of 69% to 18% among Washington Republicans, while Romney is at 47% to 42%. PPP writes, “The groups fueling Santorum’s lead in Washington are the same ones he’s doing well with everywhere: he’s up 50-20 with Tea Partiers, 50-18 with Evangelicals, and 50-19 with voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ His state by state formula for success definitely seems to include leading with each of those groups by at least 25 points.”

Washington Republicans caucus for their presidential selections on March 3.

For the governor’s office, PPP found McKenna and Inslee tied at 42%. Both candidates receive 81% of the vote among their respective partisans, Republicans and Democrats.

Notably, PPP writes, “Both of the Gubernatorial candidates are well liked with voters in the state and they’ve pulled about even on name recognition. 68% of voters are familiar with McKenna and he has a 39/29 favorability. 64% know Inslee and he has a 36/28 favorability. There aren’t a lot of races these days where we find voters liking both of their choices.”

As a point of comparison, the Elway Poll surveyed Washington registered voters last week and found McKenna with a 9-point lead over Inslee, 45-36.

There are several differences in how Public Policy Polling and the Elway Poll conducts their surveys. One is that PPP employs “automated telephone interviews,” for which people enter their responses by pushing keypad numbers on the phone. The Elway Poll employs live interviewers.

Another is the wording of the questions. In this case, the Elway Poll asked people “how they are inclined to vote for governor,” whereas PPP asked people if the governor candidates were Inslee and McKenna, “who would you vote for?”

Finally, Elway is stridently non-partisan in its polling, whereas PPP regularly polls for Democratic Party candidates. That said, PPP has been quite accurate in its Republican primary polling this year.

The differences could well lead to different samples and different levels of comfort answering the questions.

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0 comments | More in Democrats, Evangelicals, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tea Party, Washington | Tags: caucuses, Elway Poll, Mitt Romney

Vice Presidents: A little bit debutant, a little bit roller derby

Earlier today Taegan Goddard, publisher of Political Wire, tweeted this about Virgina Governor Robert F. McDonnell:

In a race for second fiddle, as soon as a semi-known politician backs off a strong position, there is speculation that they are throwing their hat in the ring for Vice President. It’s as if they are all debutantes parading around the ballroom, curtseying as instructed, not a toe out of line, waiting for their national debut.

They’re playing it safe.

I thought the role of  VP was to add balance, energy, and dimension to the presidential ticket.

A little debutant is good. They are supposed to be diplomatic after all. But a little roller derby girl is necessary, too. Let’s not forget, diplomacy is also about tough negotiation.

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What do you call a presidential candidate? Names, titles, and the art of political name-calling
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum

Republican presidential candidates Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum (Photos courtesy of www.ronpaul2012.com, mittromney.com, newt.org, and ricksantorum.com)

Name recognition is big in politics. Amid a field of candidates for various offices, having voters know your name is key.

That’s why we still have the ultimate old school campaign technology: yard signs. They show support, yes, but more importantly they get a candidate’s name in the head of anyone who passes by. And in local races, name recognition, put simply, equals more votes. Think about Washington Congressman Jim McDermott — after more than 20 years in office, the guy’s got name recognition he banks on each election. Half of Seattle can probably spell his name in their sleep and check the box next to it.

At this point in the presidential race, most people know the names of the four Republican candidates: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. Mitt, Rick, Newt, and Ron: the GOP’s 2012 Final Four.

All this got me to thinking, what do we average voters call the candidates and why?

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0 comments | More in Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Gender, George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, The Media | Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney

Lobbying in Olympia on Presidents Day: Sing-in with the Occupy movement and disco with the Revenue Coalition

Participants of Occupy Presidents Day raise their hands for a "sparkle ovation" on the Capitol steps, Monday, Feb. 20. Olympia saw a number of demonstrations to coincide with the holiday. (Photo by Ilona Idlis/UW Election Eye)

OLYMPIA–For many people, Presidents Day is marked by department store bargains and a chance to sleep in.  But for activist groups across the state of Washington, it was an obvious day to lobby–especially in an election season. Instead of snuggling under the covers, groups of students, teachers, union workers, and the occasional choir convened at the capitol early Monday morning in the cold drizzle.

Inside the legislative buildings was a hive of activity. The Senate and House offices buzzed with 15-minute visitations and the hallways were filled with youth in power suits prepping for their next meeting. Thanks to the crowds, the O’Brien Building elevator temporarily malfunctioned due to overcapacity.

Outside, two different rallies prepared for show time.

Occupy Presidents Day was staging their entrance a few blocks from the legislative campus at Sylvester Park. About fifty people encircled the park’s gazebo and listened to the day’s instructions. Scattered around the crowd were home-made anti-war signs, “99%” banners, a woman dressed as the Statue of Liberty, and a large sculpture of planet earth (which would be carried to the state house later).

Kaeley Pruitt-Hamm, a 22-year-old organizer for Western Washington Fellowship of Reconciliation, announced the logistics of the planned Sing-In and Die-In. The Occupiers would arrive inside the legislative building’s rotunda by 1:30 P.M., collapse “dead” on the ground, and then sing in protest of war to the tune of the national anthem. She had the crowd practice the song while a volunteer held up lyrics, handwritten on the back of protest signs.

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The Republican caucus in Washington is nothing like the past: It’s rich in delegates, competitive, perfectly timed, and matters

For the past 25 years, the state of Washington has been largely irrelevant in the Republican Party’s presidential primary process. This year, things are different. Very different.

Let us count the ways.

Voters gather in a Washington state high school gymnasium for the Democratic caucus on February 9, 2008. Four years later, more eyes will be on Washington State for the Republican caucus in 2012. (Photo by Jon Bell/Flickr Creative Commons)

First, Washington offers 43 delegates in the nomination competition — the second-most to date in the 2012 GOP presidential contest. Consider that in 2008, by contrast, 31 states had held their contests before Washington Republicans caucused on Feb. 9, and almost half (15) offered more delegates than the Washington GOP.

This year, 12 states will have voted and only one, Florida with 50 delegates, has or had more at stake to win. Some other states were scheduled to offer more delegates, but they were penalized by national party leadership (as was Florida) for moving earlier in the calendar than allowed.

For example, a great deal of attention is being devoted in the national press to the upcoming Feb. 28 primaries in Michigan and Arizona. However, because each state lost half of its delegates because of calendar reshuffling, Michigan and Arizona offer only 30 and 29 delegates, respectively. Washington offers more than a third more total delegates. Hello importance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second, the Republican primary schedule is less compacted than in years past. This is significant.

Number of weeks in presidential nominating contests from New Hampshire primary to Super Tuesday (graphic from fivethirtyeight blog at New York Times)

Nate Silver, who writes the New York Times’ electoral blog fivethirtyeight, noted the 2012 calendar has a much longer span of time between the opening Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary to “Super Tuesday,” a big electoral day when several states traditionally hold their contests.

Super Tuesday was created in 1984 when a number of states, many in the South, held their nominating contests on March 13 — two weeks after the New Hampshire primary. In years since, the length of time from New Hampshire to Super Tuesday has ranged from one to five weeks, with an average of three weeks. This year there are eight weeks between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday, which is scheduled for three days after the Washington caucus.

This glacial-like primary pace has provided time for countless dramatic moments. Mitt Romney has won big and lost big while he and his allies outspend foes in eye-popping numbers, Newt Gingrich won his first-ever statewide vote with a stunning comeback in South Carolina and then promptly fell off the map, Rick Santorum lost and won Iowa and then seized national momentum with a surprising three-state sweep on Feb. 7, and Ron Paul nearly pulled a rabbit out of his hat by coming close to beating Romney in Maine.

Last November, the Times’ Silver presciently said the GOP competition might turn out to be “The Buyer’s Remorse Primary” in that voters would have plenty of time to ponder upon the field, and perhaps choose differently than previous states.  “[I]f you’ve enjoyed all the twists and turns in the Republican race so far,” Silver wrote three months ago, “the elongated calendar should leave plenty of time for a few more of them.” Um, yes.

Third, the national party’s chosen candidate, Romney, has yet to win over the party’s base, which tends to be Christian conservatives. As a result, the crew of “not-Romneys” — currently Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul — have made this a real race. In 1988, Washington Republicans in their caucuses chose Christian firebrand Pat Robertson, and the state is known for a politically active conservative Christian population. In 2008, Romney finished third here, so the not-Romneys see Washington as an attractive place this time around.

Chris Vance was the campaign manager in 1988 for the Bob Dole campaign in Washington state, later held a seat in the state legislature, and was Republican state chair 2001-06. On Saturday he said, “In every election since 1988, the mainline Republicans in this state have been fine with the establishment candidate. The thing that is driving the campaign is Mitt Romney’s inability to excite the average Republican. No one loves him. We’ll see if Rick Santorum can excite folks here.”

From 1988 onward, Republican presidential campaigns have been dominated by the Bushes (1988, 1992, 2000, 2004), Dole (1988 and 1996), and John McCain (2000 and 2008). All of them convinced the party’s wings of conservatives and moderates to back them. Washington’s caucus will either help to return to this form or be an important step in confirming an insurgent candidacy. Which way it goes will matter.

Tables await voters and the kick-off of the 2008 Washington state presidential caucus on Feb 7, 2008. (Photo by Jason Walsh/Flickr Creative Commons)

Fourth, for the first time in modern Republican presidential contests, Washington will politically own the day. In past years of competitive primaries, the state’s Republicans have always voted on a day shared with other states.

In 1988, Washington went on Super Tuesday with 16 other states. In 1996, Washington competed for attention with two other states — one of which was California, the Andre the Giant of delegates. In 2000 it was another Super Tuesday with 12 other states. And in 2008 it was another three-state affair.

This year, Washington is on an island, all by itself three days before Super Tuesday.  And on a Saturday, which is traditionally a slow news day. If the state’s Republicans are ever going to be the epicenter of national politics, this is it. The gang at CNN had better be practicing their Puyallup and Sequim pronunciations and confirming that there is indeed a Vancouver in Washington.

The Washington state Republican Party will award almost all of its delegates via caucuses this year. On its website, the party contains information for potential voters.

Fifth and finally, Washington dumped its state-wide primary this year due to costs. After Robertson won the Republican caucuses in 1988, “leadership, state party officials, and legislators viewed it as an embarrassment,” Vance said.  As a result, the GOP pushed hard to create a system that involved more voters in the process. The state obliged by instituting a primary in 1989, which allows voters to cast ballots without engaging in time-consuming caucuses.

The Democrats have ignored the primary for the 20+ years since, choosing to award presidential delegates solely based on caucus results. Republicans, however, have pursued a hybrid strategy of awarding half of their delegates based on caucus results and half based on primary results, with the two elections held on separate dates. It’s been confusing and a turn-off to candidates and campaigns.

This year, the state legislature cancelled the primary to save an estimated $10 million, so all 43 of the Republican delegates (except for three super-delegates who are essentially free agents) are riding on the caucus outcomes.

On March 3, the nation will at long last be focused on Washington’s Republicans. Game On.

 

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0 comments | More in Caucuses, conservatives, Democrats, Election 2012, Republicans, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Washington | Tags: Chris Vance, delegates, Pat Robertson

What’s your story, Mitt Romney?: Authenticity and the search for a candidate’s “true north”

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney works the crowd in Greenville, SC on January 21. Romney was greeting supporters on the morning of the state's primary. (Photo by A.V. Crofts/UW Election Eye)

The concept of “authenticity” is overused in these days of avatars, 140 character sound bytes, and reality television. But the idea has not gone — and may never go — out of style: we crave authentic leaders. Across all sectors, leaders whose values and actions align with their articulated life story are time and again rewarded with devoted followers.

So what’s Mitt Romney’s story?

Much has been published in the past two weeks about Romney’s inability or calculated unwillingness to be genuine or forthcoming about his life story, from his sealed lips surrounding his core religious values to his damaging instinct to be that which others wish of him. The result is an “excitement deficit” for his candidacy.

I’ll not soon forget the scene in a Colorado Springs high school classroom on the night of the Colorado caucus, when voters were asked to to speak on behalf of their preferred candidate. The precinct captain invited supporters of Mitt Romney to stand and address the room. No one stirred. Not one. There was no sign of support, let alone excitement.

And no wonder.

How can you get excited about someone you don’t know?

People can’t, and the numbers bear this out.

Percentage decrease in 2012 votes for Mitt Romney, compared to 2008 results, in Republican Party caucus contests.

To start, let’s look at the results of Republican caucuses, which tend to draw the most enthusiastic members of a party. In the five states that have caucused so far this year, Romney’s total number of votes in 2012 decreased from his votes in 2008, even though he is the frontrunner this year. In Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine, Romney saw a decrease in voter support of between roughly 22 – 69% from his numbers in the 2008 primaries. Yes, Romney held on to his win in Maine (unlike the embarrassment of Iowa), but given that his Maine vote total is far less than the total he won in 2008, it’s a less-than-overwhelming victory.

Furthermore, according to Talking Points Memo Polltracker, starting January 12 — just after the GOP primary had begun in earnest — Romney’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have diverged wildly, with as of February 14 an unfavorable rating of nearly 50%, and a favorable rating of 30%, down from a high in early January of almost 44%.

 

So why the nose dive?

If voters don’t feel they know you, they don’t trust you. Remember, we want a President who makes for good company over a few cold beers.

So far, Romney has been clumsy as he stumps for votes, gaining a reputation for sometimes awkward banter contrasted with a short fuse that was on display when he interviewed with FOX news anchor Bret Baier. But Romney is between a rock and a hard place. There are threads to his life story that don’t play as well to the GOP base: a father born in Mexico, his time in France, a former governor of one of the bluest states in the nation. That said, attempts to distance himself from these parts of his identity ultimately just fuel the perception of cipher or his insincerity.

But more than sociability, voters want to know where candidates stand, and what they stand for. Romney has faced a skeptical Republican base who question his conservative credentials and his plans for the highest office of the land. Add this to the fact that compared to the unabashed, going-down-with-the-ship “what you see is what you get” that Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich espouse and back up with track records, Romney struggles by comparison.

Finally, take a look at this video of Mitt Romney from the time of the 2004 presidential campaign, when he was governor of Massachusetts and John Kerry was the Democratic Party nominee. Pay special attention at the 1:47 mark.

Hear this line?

“He is very conflicted and drawn in two very different directions,” Romney says about Kerry, “He is with an audience that he wants to identify with, to satisfy that audience, so he says what they want to hear.”

Fast forward eight years and Romney could easily be describing himself.

Leadership guru and author Stephen Covey — an influential Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints figure like Romney– coined the concept of “true north” in his book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. The term refers to core values and convictions that help guide an individual on their leadership journey. An internal compass, if you will.

Right now, Romney is charting a course that is less steered by his essential beliefs, and is instead sadly far too much under the influence of others. In trying to please a spectrum of GOP faithful, he has diminished his image of a strong sense of self, perhaps irreparably.

Over 40 years ago, when Romney was a rising star undergraduate at Brigham Young University, he invited Covey, also just at the onset of his career, to address a fundraising club he had joined on campus. The club raised $100,000 for BYU in twelve months. He’d do well to dust off his copy of Covey’s runaway bestseller — I’d bet a bundle of delegates he’s got a signed dog-eared copy — and right his ship.

Time to be yourself, Mitt. Everyone else is taken.

David Domke contributed to this report.

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0 comments | More in Election 2012, Maine, Mitt Romney, Mormons, Newt Gingrich, Religious faith, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul | Tags: excitement deficit, favorable ratings, Mitt Romney

Adventures in campaign miscommunication: Ron Paul has problems coming in first…on Google

Finding a presidential candidate’s official website can be tricky. Sometimes that is because someone has intentionally disrupted a campaign’s public message. Sometimes it is a campaign’s own fault.

Consider an example of Instance #1: In 2003 during an interview, Rick Santorum spoke about homosexuality and bestiality in the same breath. In response, Dan Savage of The Stranger created and promoted a site that redefined Santorum’s name into a substance I would rather not describe.

For a long time, Savage’s site, spreadingsantorum.com, came in as the first result on the results pages for various search engines. It’s taken awhile but Santorum’s main campaign site has now replaced Savage’s for the first spot on the results page.

Similar “campaign disruption” sites have been created to target other Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. However, these sites do not rank very highly on the results page, and in the case of Paul, the site is actually positive: it claims Ron Paul=Champion of the Constitution.

Paul has a different search engine problem, which is an example of Instance #2: his own campaign is ineffectively promoting Paul.

Sites from top to bottom: RonPaul2012.com, RonPaul.com, RonRaul.org, DailyPaul.com

A web search for “Ron Paul” will produce a barrage of sites, and at first glance it is near impossible to discern which site is the official Paul campaign site. All of the results sound legitimate enough: ronpaul.com, ronpaul2012.com, ronpaul.org, ronpaulforpresident2012.com, and ronpaul2012.net, just to name a few.

The internet presence of candidates is crucial in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Having a centralized web identity is paramount for two reasons.

First, it’s about consistency of message. Voters go to websites to learn about a candidate’s personal story and to learn about their stance on issues. For a candidate like Paul, who has literally stayed on message since the 1960s, having any inconsistency across the sites is problematic.

For example, curious individuals who go to RonPaul2012.com and want to know more about health care are met with two clear, concise messages: “Do no harm,” and “Freedom not force.” The first talks briefly about Paul’s professional history as a doctor and his commitment to this principle of medicine. The latter zones in on Paul’s desire to repeal the Obama administration’s health care law and lays out an exacting plan of how he will work with Congress in a short list of bullet points.

However, someone who goes to RonPaul.com in search of health care information encounters a somewhat rambling message interspersed with videos, transcripts, and excerpts before concluding with a 16-point plan.

RonPaul2012.com is the campaign’s official site and RonPaul.com is a fan site, but the two contend for the first position on the search-engine results page, followed by a litany of other sites. (Try googling “Ron Paul,” which site do you get first?) For the casual searcher, it can be confusing which to pick. And for a candidate, looking to get an exact message to potential voters, it can be damaging if the searcher selects the fan site first.

The other crucial aspect of a centralized campaign site is distributing and disseminating consistent information about events.

When voters, supporters, or interested citizens want to know more about a candidate’s event schedule, they often go to their website. This approach makes perfect sense. But when there are multiple websites with different event information, things are no longer simple.

Top image: RonPaul2012.com events page. Bottom image: RonPaul.com events page.

The official Paul site has timely event postings, documenting his rallies and appearances for the next few days. The site also integrates various Facebook, Twitter, Google+, Google Maps, and iCal options so users can get event information to social networks, map locations of events, or add it to their personal calendar.

As for the other sites, forget about fancy integration: they don’t even have events. The fan site doesn’t have any events listed until Election Day. For the casual searcher, it is confusing.

We have all heard that Paul has a devoted, young following who, because of their generational familiarity with technology, are able to surf the interwebs and find his official site with the desired event information. Such folks arrived en masse at Paul’s SeaTac rally this past Thursday. But for the casual supporter or person who wants to experience Paul-mania in person, Paul’s multiplying web presence can be tricky to navigate.

Paul may want — and need — to take a page from Santorum’s playbook on getting the real Ron Paul to come in first.

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1 comments | More in Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Technology | Tags: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum

In Passing: From San Quentin to Levi Strauss & Co.

"In Passing" posts capture shorter snapshots of places and people we encounter on the road. (Photos courtesy of Alex Stonehill, A.V. Crofts and Flickr Creative Commons/UW Election Eye)

LAS VEGAS – The first thing I noticed were his earrings. Drew Williams, 61, sports diamond studs that could cut through glass. He was nursing a bottle of Corona with a wedge of lime, an untouched basket of chips and salsa on the table.  When he smiled, his gold incisors sparkled. Williams wore a watch the size of a corsage and a baseball cap with his first name stitched across the front.

He was killing time at a hole-in-the-wall Mexican restaurant while waiting for his car to be fixed at a nearby mechanic.

Williams knows a thing or two about time.

When we met a few weeks back, he told me he arrived in Las Vegas to start a new chapter of his life, after eight years of incarceration for robbery at San Quentin State Prison, California’s oldest and most notorious correctional facility. While in San Quentin, Williams was part of a different 1% than the one most referred to these days: In the United States, one of every 100 adult Americans is in jail or prison. As The Man in Black, Johnny Cash, sang this about San Quentin, “I hate every stone of you.”

Williams is all too familiar with some of those stones. He explains to me that two of those eight years were spent “in the hole,” otherwise known as solitary confinement. Author Adam Gopnik, in his recent article for The New Yorker, reports that each day, “at least fifty thousand men — a full house at Yankee Stadium — wake in solitary confinement.” During those 730 days of limited human contact, Williams describes how his neighbor taught him how to play chess through the walls of their cells. They played one another through the power of their imagination.

Drew Williams, 61, photographed at La Choza Mexican Restaurant on February 3, 2012. He was having a drink while waiitng for his car to be repaired nearby. (A. V. Crofts/UW Election Eye)

Once released, “I turned my life around,” Williams says. For the last 17 years, Williams tells me he’s worked in the Las Vegas Distribution Service Center for Levi-Strauss & Co. He is active in the United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 711. He thumbs through his cell phone to show me photos of his newest grandson.

When I ask Williams about the upcoming election, he speaks with a realism that in part stems from the total of his life experiences. “I’m a Democrat,” he says. “Obama faced many challenges, and I think he could have done some things better.” But Williams takes the long view, and says that one man cannot change a system overnight.

“It’s going to take time,” he says, “It’s going to take a miracle.”

I take his words to heart. The man knows about time.

 

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0 comments | More in Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2012, Nevada, Unions | Tags: Barack Obama, Las Vegas, San Quentin State Prison

Rick Santorum hits one million…on Temple Run, or how presidential candidates now embrace video games

Photo by gamesradar.com

On almost any smartphone or tablet, amid the e-mail clients and various apps, one is likely to find a mobile game or two. Look on Rick Santorum’s iPad and you will see Temple Run.

I discovered this about the presidential candidate’s gaming habits when I spoke to his eldest daughter and son, Elizabeth and John. They said that as a family they don’t have time to play a console game on Xbox, PlayStation, or Wii, so they gather around the iPad to play games while on the campaign trail.

Santorum is not alone in his fondness of the game. Temple Run was one of the 50 most-downloaded apps in the App Store in December 2011, and has over 1.8 million likes on Facebook. The game runs on Apple’s mobile operating system, iOS, and, according to its creators Imangi Studios, it tests “your reflexes as you race down ancient temple walls and along sheer cliffs.”

Sounds like the perfect game for a presidential candidate.

I talked briefly with Santorum in Denver last week, and recounted my conversation with his children about Temple Run. Almost sheepishly, the presidential candidate replied, “When I go home my kids load all this junk on my iPad…I played it once and here I am….It used to be Angry Birds, now it’s Temple Run.”

His campaign manager later tugged his arm to direct him to the next interview, but Santorum wasn’t quite done yet. He asked, “Did they tell you what my high score was?” I said around one million, and he replied, “Yeah, it’s not very good.”

He’s right. Type in “highest score on Temple Run” on YouTube and one finds hundreds of videos with players getting into the multi-millions. To be fair, though, Santorum does have his hands full right now with things other than perfecting his gaming skills.

But there is a more serious aspect to all of this.

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0 comments | More in Barack Obama, campaign oddities, Colorado, Family, George W. Bush, Rick Santorum, Technology | Tags: Barack Obama, casual games, George W. Bush

Republican problems with Latino voters run deep, but some seek a new course

Every election cycle, pundits, candidates, and journalists speculate that this might be the campaign in which a Republican presidential candidate wins over Latino voters, a large and growing body of the electorate.

Unless something dramatic occurs, it will not happen this year.

Percent of Latino registered voters expressing "favorable" opinions of these politicians (Latino Decisions survey, January 16-23, 2012, margin of eror +/- 4.4%)

A mid-January national poll of Latino registered voters — conducted in part by UW political science professor Matt Barreto — showed that the most recent Republican president, George W. Bush, and the three front-running 2012 GOP presidential candidates are viewed far less favorably than the current Democratic president, Barack Obama. Among Latinos with opinions of the candidates, 72% had a favorable impression of Obama, compared to no more than 37% for any of the Republicans.

In head-to-head electoral matchups in the same survey, Obama beat Mitt Romney 67-25 and Newt Gingrich 70-22. Each of these was even more tilted than in the 2008 election, when Obama beat John McCain 67-31 among Latinos voters.

So why aren’t Republicans winning over Latino voters?

(more…)

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0 comments | More in Colorado, Latinos, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republicans, Rick Santorum | Tags: Colorado, Latinos, Mitt Romney

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